Post Time Pete's Kentucky Derby Short List as of 4-16-2010

Contributed By Post Time Pete
Posted on 4/16/10 7:50 AM

This week I've whittled my Kentucky Derby short list down to five contenders. This year's Derby has a great field and I can see this going many ways, but if this past weekend's races (Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby) were any indication, a few horses are showing great improvement while others are falling behind the pace or not moving at all.

Stately Victor was the long shot in the Blue Grass and pulled up an amazing upset blowing by Paddy O'Prado at the finish. If that race had been an extra furlong I don't think it would have been as close as it was. Line of David took the Arkansas Derby and Noble's Promise suffered scrapes during the race and is now very questionable for the Derby. That's enough for him to fall off my short list for now.

Eskendereya is still the heavy favorite but there's no money betting on the favorite and while I think he's a fantastic horse, I can see him getting beat. I also feel Lookin' At Lucky, again a great horse, is being over valued. Since my list is dropping back to only five contenders, Lookin' At Lucky was left off but I would place him at #6 in the list right now.

Anyway, here are the picks. Enjoy, and let me know your thoughts and where you're putting your money!


No.   Horse Pool 3 Odds Trainer Possible Jockey Comments
1 Sidney's Candy Silks Sidney's Candy 15-1 John W. Sadler Joe Talamo I realize I'm going against the mob on this pick but I really like this horse.
2 Ice Box Silks Ice Box 12-1 Nicholas P. Zito Jose Lezcano Ice Box slides into #2 this week, mostly because the more I see how heavily favored Eskendereya is, the less I like him.
3 Eskendereya Silks Eskendereya 5-1 Todd A. Pletcher John R. Velazquez Heavily favored for a reason and simply too strong to discount.
4 Super Saver Silks Super Saver 20-1 Todd A. Pletcher Calvin Borel Gary Stevens forced me to take another look at this horse - he may be right.
5 Stately Victor Silks Stately Victor   Michael J. Maker Alan Garcia Put on an impressive performance in the Blue Grass stakes and, as Big Daddy pointed out, being a Ghostzapper colt doesn't hurt. Continued improvement might make him something to watch in the Derby.


Triple Crown Contender

How do you pick a triple crown contender when you can't even narrow it down for the Derby? I'm not seeing anything obvious, but I still feel that if Eskendereya pulls out the win, he has a shot at the crown.

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