Post Time Pete's Kentucky Derby Short List as of 4-9-2010
Contributed By Post Time PetePosted on 4/9/10 12:12 PM
After spending the last two weeks gibing Big Daddy No Bucks on his short list for the Kentucky Derby winner hopefuls, I've been challenged to come up with a list of my own. I have to admit, I haven't had much luck at handicapping graded stakes races like the Kentucky Derby. Every horse that runs in the Derby is a good horse and while there may be certain horses that "stand out" on a good day, any one of them can win.
There are definitely some horses that stand out to me as serious contenders at this year's Kentucky Derby. If there were any doubters, Eskendereya proved at the Wood Memorial he's the real deal. Sidney's Candy also put on a great show at the Santa Anita Derby. Many question whether or not he can handle the fast pace of the Kentucky Derby and while only time will tell, I think he can. Lookin At Lucky didn't finish where expected and I question whether Gomez is the right jockey for him. He's still a great horse and a definite contender, but the ride won't be any easier so I'm not convinced he'll finish in the money.
Odysseus squeaked by in the Tampa Bay Derby but I don't think he's a serious enough contender. Ice Box, Pleasant Prince and Rule ran well in the Florida Derby but I like Ice Box and Prince as more serious contenders than Rule.
We still have a few more races on the Road to the Roses so my picks are definitely subject to change. This weekend we'll get another preview of Aikenite, Interactif and Oysseus at the Blue Grass while Dublin and Noble's Promise show off at the Arkansas Derby.
So, after all that, here's my list. See how Big Daddy and my picks stack up or how far off the pace we are!
| No. | Horse | Pool 3 Odds | Trainer | Possible Jockey | Comments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 |
Sidney's Candy | 15-1 | John W. Sadler | Joe Talamo | I know the negatives on this horse, but he ran very well in the Santa Anita Derby and Joe Talamo handles him very well. |
| 2 |
 |
Eskendereya | 5-1 | Todd A. Pletcher | John R. Velazquez | He's the favorite for a reason. |
| 3 |
 |
Ice Box | 12-1 | Nicholas P. Zito | Jose Lezcano | Ran well at the Florida Derby and continues to improve. |
| 4 |
 |
Endorsement | Field Horse | Shannon Ritter | Robby J. Albarado | |
| 5 |
 |
Pleasant Prince | 20-1 | Wesley A. Ward | Julien R. Leparoux | |
| 6 |
 |
Noble's Promise | 12-1 | Kenneth G. Mcpeek | Robby J. Albarado | |
| 7 |
 |
Awesome Act | 15-1 | Jeremy Noseda | Julien R. Leparoux | |
| 8 |
 |
Rule | 20-1 | Todd A. Pletcher | John R. Velazquez | |
| 9 |
 |
Lookin At Lucky | 6-1 | Bob Baffert | Garrett K. Gomez | I don't know if Lookin at Lucky can handle the tight pack at the Derby, but he's a great horse and if run properly can still win. |
| 10 |
 |
Aikenite | 50-1 | Todd A. Pletcher | Alan Garcia |
Triple Crown Contender
Looking at this list, I have to agree with Big Daddy No Bucks that there are no front-runners for the triple crown. However, I believe if Eskendereya continues to improve and ends up winning the Derby, he stands a reasonable chance at the crown.
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