Horse Racing Blog Posts by Big Daddy No Bucks

This year's Illinois Derby field features two or three possible stars surrounded by a mob of second and third stringers. That said, longshot and exotic bet opportunities abound. Here is a breakdown of the field and how I'll be betting.

It's only a couple of weeks before they gallop for the roses and I can honestly say I have absolutely no clue as to who the favorites should be. However, last weekend's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes did confirm a few things. First, bad weather and bad starts really do mix to create dream tickets like 120K plus superfectas; and secondly, a good ride often trumps a good horse.

I don't know where he went, but last Saturday Sidney's Candy announced presence commandingly in the La Jolla Handicap. Sidney came into his turf debut armed with a new jockey (Joel Rosario), and carrying the most weight in a pretty good field.

With Icebox sitting this one out and the anything but lucky team of Garrett Gomez and Lookin At Lucky broken up, I'm putting Baffert's beleaguered super horse from the west back on top. Super Saver and Paddy O'prado have certainly earned their place on the list of possible winners. Both horses should benefit greatly from having the cagey Cajun jockeys Calvin Borel and Kent Desormeaux providing steerage. Caracortado is my long shot, which may be close to a favorite by post time.

The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men, Gang aft agley, -- Robert Burns. If ever Burns' words rang true for me it is with my picks for this years Kentucky Derby winner. My favorite Eskendereya is gone. Endorsement is out. While post position one has launched twelve Kentucky Derby winners, it looks like a challenge for Lookn at Lucky. Sidney's Candy--one of my sentimental favorites--drew post position twenty. Only two horses have ever won from that far out (Big Brown in 2008 and Clyde Van Dusen in 1929).

Eskendereya withdrawing from the Kentucky Derby field has left many a bettor without a favorite - including me! I basically saw the #2 through #5 horses on the list as horses to potentially box in exactas with Eskendereya. And then there is Lookin At Lucky to figure out. He seems to like the track at Churchill Downs, but is that enough to catapult him to the top of my list? Is he playable? Can he stay out of trouble? For the moment he stays where he is, but that may very well change by Derby day.

As of this writing all the horses who have a chance of running in the 2010 Kentucky Derby have been set. With the exception of Lookin at Lucky and Sydney's Candy, I'm comfortable with my list. While Sydney's Candy is my sentimental favorite, I think this field is going to eat him up. As for Lookin At Lucky, the questions seem to be can Lucky and Gomez stay out of trouble, and how will he take to track. Lookin At Lucky is a stout horse, but I can't see him not finding trouble in a twenty horse field of great horses.

Like so many of the derby prep races the Bluegrass Stakes and Arkansas Derby gave the beehive of speculation a solid kick. Super long shot Stately Victor (40/1) blasted past Paddy O'Prado to take the Bluegrass Stakes running away. Line of David (17/1) wire to wired the Arkansas Derby by a head. About the only thing that makes sense to me is Stately Victor - being a Ghostzapper colt - would develop a little slowly and show up in the winner's circle late.

The Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby created as many questions as it did answers. At this time, Eskendereya definitely appears to be the horse to beat. Sydney's Candy won the pace less Santa Anita Derby commandingly even after stumbling out of the gate, but can he win a race with a demanding pace? And then there is Lookin At Lucky...He just can't seem to stay out of trouble, or possibly its jockey Garrett Gomez who can't keep Lookin At Lucky out of trouble.

While there may be a 3 year old that can beat Eskendereya out there I don't believe its in the six horse field for tomorrow's Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Eskendereya's run in the Fountain of Youth (see below) was very impressive. He left a field that included Jackson Bend and Ice Box in the dust. If any of the five horses challenging Eskendereya in the Wood can race with Eskendereya it looks to me to be Awesome Act. Unfortunately there's no money to be made in betting either Eskendereya or Awesome Act, so I'll be betting on Schoolyard Dreams as a spoiler.